Very well written Ankit. I liked both the arrogance & the humitliy part. This article is so well balanced that it provides a good starting point to understand this business deeper. Interesting business model and yes, the skill & execution of the promoter & management team is very important in this business. I feel as a next step I would check the other key management personnel, their skills, capabilities etc. & keep observing their execution in the next few quarters.
This was a masterclass in balanced skepticism rare to see such a nuanced take that blends deep analysis with self-awareness. Loved the Klarman framing and your breakdown of debt dynamics vs. turnaround optics. “Treadmill nature of the business” nailed it.
Really loved the article… It is surely balanced, but more so, calling out the counter view when things are hunky dory needs guts. It’s very easy to write an article in retrospective view for eg on Why Gensol was a gone case etc etc… But your article is calling out both pros and cons very well at a time when business is in vogue. Loved it !!!
Really appreciate the depth and balance in this piece. Everyone seems to be leaning into the supply-demand mismatch story — after a decade of underbuilding, the belief is that demand will keep outpacing supply, and this cycle might be different. It’s possible they’re right. But when I can’t confidently judge whether something is truly structural or just a strong post-COVID rebound, especially in a cyclical and levered business, I prefer to stay cautious. Sometimes the best decision is to wait it out. For those interested in the bullish case, the recent CARE Ratings report captures it well.
I have been hearing about Sami Hotel for the past many months. The business needs stability, meaning just manage for results, it is nit that it's not being done, but managing for results is about just the property as it is and each hotel separately. Unless this is done for two years Sami Hotel will be another 'that ran.'
Just because everyone’s hyped doesn’t mean it’s smart to follow. Debt’s still high, and business-heavy hotel demand is way more cyclical than people are admitting. Good reminder to stay humble even when the crowd is loud.
People had questions on debt - it is taken care
People had questions on promotors - we now have a strategic partner - GIC
Valuation - the best
With the reduction in debt, shift to upper scale, profits will zoom
It’s a no brainer ..
Professionally managed companies are more reliable when it comes to balance sheet ..
have very high regards for Ashish ..
Thanks, Sir. For your honest feedback.
Regards
Very well articulated, looking forward for more such research. Thank you Sir.
🙂🙏❤️
Very well written Ankit. I liked both the arrogance & the humitliy part. This article is so well balanced that it provides a good starting point to understand this business deeper. Interesting business model and yes, the skill & execution of the promoter & management team is very important in this business. I feel as a next step I would check the other key management personnel, their skills, capabilities etc. & keep observing their execution in the next few quarters.
Thank you for sharing.
Thank you, Ashutosh. Glad that you liked it. 🙂
This was a masterclass in balanced skepticism rare to see such a nuanced take that blends deep analysis with self-awareness. Loved the Klarman framing and your breakdown of debt dynamics vs. turnaround optics. “Treadmill nature of the business” nailed it.
Thank you, Pavan.
Glad that you found value.🙏
Really loved the article… It is surely balanced, but more so, calling out the counter view when things are hunky dory needs guts. It’s very easy to write an article in retrospective view for eg on Why Gensol was a gone case etc etc… But your article is calling out both pros and cons very well at a time when business is in vogue. Loved it !!!
Really appreciate the depth and balance in this piece. Everyone seems to be leaning into the supply-demand mismatch story — after a decade of underbuilding, the belief is that demand will keep outpacing supply, and this cycle might be different. It’s possible they’re right. But when I can’t confidently judge whether something is truly structural or just a strong post-COVID rebound, especially in a cyclical and levered business, I prefer to stay cautious. Sometimes the best decision is to wait it out. For those interested in the bullish case, the recent CARE Ratings report captures it well.
https://www.careratings.com/uploads/newsfiles/28032024020751_Hospitality_Sector_CareEdge_Report.pdf
I have been hearing about Sami Hotel for the past many months. The business needs stability, meaning just manage for results, it is nit that it's not being done, but managing for results is about just the property as it is and each hotel separately. Unless this is done for two years Sami Hotel will be another 'that ran.'
Just because everyone’s hyped doesn’t mean it’s smart to follow. Debt’s still high, and business-heavy hotel demand is way more cyclical than people are admitting. Good reminder to stay humble even when the crowd is loud.
Great Insights !!
Wonderful article Ankit ji. Thanks for sharing it here with retail investor.
Thanks, Sanjay ji🙏
Brilliantly written article, Ankit
Incidentally I had exited this stock earlier this week after holding it since Dec 2023 that too at cost!
As in any selling decision, was apprehensive if my rationale for exit was right or wrong. Your note now substantiates merits of my decision.
Note: not saying stock cannot move up from here…
Thank you, Saurab. Let's see how it plays out. I may be wrong. Just shared my view. :)
Shri Ankit appreciate your logical and rounded analysis.
IMHO a good stock is like an oncoming bus at a stop on a busy route, in case you let one go, another is on the way there.
In this case would love to wait for the next opportunity
while calculating revenues for Sheraton Hyderabad any reason you left out F&B revenues?
I think I took it from the Philip Capital report. Will check again.